For those who fancy a flutter, you may be interested in the odds of a Reform UK government or a Nigel Farage prime ministership. Here’s the state of play for November 2025.
Most seats
Leading betting markets platform Smarkets give Reform UK a 54.05% chance of getting the most seats at the next general election. They lead Labour on 23.26% and the Conservatives on 13.89%.
Overall majority
While Reform UK are well ahead on the most seats market, the majority of money is backing there being no party with an overall majority. No overall majority is rated as 52.08%. A Reform majority is at 26.32%, while Labour is on 13.5%.
Next prime minister
Leading the field to replace Sir Keir Starmer is Wes Streeting with a 20% chance. Second favourite is Reform UK’s leader Nigel Farage on 12.5% just ahead of Angela Rayner on 11.9%. Kemi Badenoch is rated as having just a 3.12% chance. If you like really long odds then how about Rupert Lowe at 0.95% or Boris Johnson on 1.18%.
Keir Starmer exit date
Grim reading for Starmer who is given a 53% chance of losing his party leadership in 2026. The second most supported option is 2027 with 18.5%. The chance of him lasting to 2029 or beyond is 15.62%.
These odds are a snapshot on 16th November 2025. Check Smarkets for live prices.
